Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Veil into The Heavens

Well, it has been awhile since any ink has been added to this flight log of the Flying Monkeys. I will try to give y'all a little coffee read...........and NO Reece & I did not move to Bama, thanks Dave for the chuckle off the Chat and the spur to make me sit and type. Thanks to Maui Doug for the inspirational picture.

Yes, Thom, does still fly Bonita, not as much as you but way more rarely than I can stand sometimes.
The weather has changed, whether it be El Nino, la nina, global warming or maybe I am just getting old. Planning work around flying has been a logistical nightmare. Even Alex's post on the Windlines chat yesterday, " Alex: Kahana was tricky with strong leeside thermals and no ridge lift. Fun XC day to see how my new EN-C recovers after it goes away! Great to see Patrick and Marcel charging from dawn til dusk." That pretty much sums up more than 50% of the days at least for me.

I have become a fair weather flier, haven't really ventured out of either play ground of Makapuu or Kahana since my incident in 2016. But Tuesday was gonna be a good day, checked batteries, loaded gear and a few delays later we were headed to Makapuu.  A perfect day! I forgot my boots. Slippas it is cause I need a flight. Even with a few squalls spotted off shore and a shroud of rain with back lit sunlight  covered the Koolaus in this mystical veil, it was just what the doctor ordered.

Perfect day, didn't go far, stayed in the playground.  Reece & I got to fly with Maui Doug, Re-Tireman Dave, Flash and Paul from Waimanalo ( usually on paramotor but free flew today). Olivie had flown and landed and came by Crazy Launch to give us his brief, Nour flew after we left to keep the skies company till twilight.

Heard Doug, "Sky God" Hoffman was in town and training his prodigy Matt Hoffman, his son. Wish I could been there for that one.  Glad to see Kincaid hitting the skies hard and even scoring a few Lanikai flights. His dad "Q" is one of the reasons I even started flying after a tandem off Cactus many years ago.

I always wondered when I would ease off on the addiction, I had it pretty bad or good as the case may be. I was hoping it would be age but I still love to fly.

It's Time to Fly Get Your Gear and Go!!! But only if the weather is nice, hahaha.


Thom said...

Ok changed the title not sure where that other one came from.

Gravity said...

Hey Hawaii Friends... If you have some questions about Hurricane Douglas, a good resource by the best tropical forecasters in the world is here (in the case of Hawaii Hurricanes, it is a collaboration between the Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NOAA:
Here is how to use this link:
Find the the storm you are interested in and review the product choices available for it - the products are sorted in the right hand side in the like above, first by ocean basin and then by storm name.
The two products you may find most useful are the "TC Warning Graphic" (for info) and the "IR Satellite Imagery" (because Mother Nature is really cool) In this case, the current products for Douglas are here:
The other products are harder to read; the "TC Warning Graphic" is really for forecasters and emergency managers but here is a rough guide on how to read it.
Open the Warning Graphic with the track depicted (not the satellite image) and look at the information box on the right hand side of the graphic. BE SURE TO DOUBLE CHECK THE TITLE TIME STAMP ABOVE THE BOX TO BE SURE THAT YOUR BROWSER ISN'T SHOWING YOU CACHED IMAGES!!.
Focus first on the middle of the info box at the places listed under the CPA (closest point of approach) list. Choose the closest one to where you are concerned about and make a note of the distance of CPA. This distance is how far the eye will pass from that station. In this case, you were wondering about windward Oahu, I would choose the K Bay option.
The K Bay CPA is 4 miles (!!!) on the 27th at "8z" which is 8:00am GMT. BE SURE TO CONVERT TO LOCAL TIME. To do this subtract 10 hours from GMT. Putting that together, the predicted closest passage of the eye to K Bay is at 10pm on the 26th (after converting the time) at a range of 4 miles.
With the time established, the next part is how strong it will be. That information is in the top part of the info box where it lists max speeds, gusts and significant wave heights. BE SURE TO CHOOSE THE INTENSITY AT THE TIME YOU FOUND FOR CPA IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE. In this case, there ins't exactly an 8Z time listed so just estimate between the OOZ and 12Z but since it is 8Z it will be closer to the 12Z prediction than the 00Z. So.. I would estimate, based on the chart, 55-60kts with gusts between 70 and 75kts.
Putting it all together, I would prepare to see the peak intensity for the windward side of Oahu on the night of the 26th at 10pm and be ready for sustained winds up to 60kts with gusts to 75kts.
(EDIT: Adding one final thing)
If you really want to nerd out.. there is one final adjustment you can make... in the N Hemisphere, tropicals spin counter clockwise.. That means, in Hawaii, if the track goes south of you, the wind speed of the circulation combines with the speed the storm is moving (in the case of the graphic we have been using, you will see in the top text of the info box that it is moving about 16kts). So if it passes north of you, subtract 16 that speed and if passes south of you add 16 kts). It's a big deal to be in the 'right front'. If you are K Bay, a minor wiggle in the track could change what you see on station by 32 kts!
I that is confusing, please let me know!
PLEASE Brian C Howell
,Owen Shieh
and Allan Howard
- keep me honest on this.. as we all know, 1800s really don't know much 🙂